April 10, 2003
As Coalition forces consolidate their hold on Iraq, it would be best if the inhabitants of the
Free World (the Iraqis among them) would keep a steady strain and not get carried away with euphoria
over the initial success of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Yes, it appears that the Second Gulf War is
turning out to be an even more smashing success than the First Gulf War, that American military
superiority over the rest of the world has reached new levels, and that the Iraqis are indeed
embracing their freedom.
But, as Winston Churchill might have said, this isn't even the end of the beginning. For
starters, this war is by no means over. The eerie resemblances between Saddam's Ba'athist regime and
that of the Nazis continue to the very end: much like Allied generals feared Hitler's followers
would do in Bavaria at the end of the Second World War, Saddam's last followers are making a last
stand on their leader's home turf of Tikrit. However unlikely the possibility is, Hussein could
very well be among them if he managed to survive the latest attempt on his life. And the defenders
of Tikrit, Hussein or no Hussein, could still use any chemical weapons in their possession.
Which brings up another problem: to date, no weapons of mass destruction have been found in
Iraq. It's fortunate that the Coalition wasn't vindicated the hard way, with chemical and/or
biological agents being rained down on their soldiers, but it's unfortunate that no solid evidence
of these weapons has come to light in Iraq, even with those Coalition soldiers scouring the country.
A failure to find any evidence of Iraqi WMD will only vindicate those (and there are many) who've
accused the United States all along of attacking Iraq only to secure its oil reserves.
And the issue of oil brings up yet another problem: the Kurdish Question. In a perfect world,
Kurdistan would be a free and independent nation in the heart of the Middle East, selling
petroleum to the rest of the world from the oilfields lying in the vicinity of Mosul and Kirkuk.
But the world we live in is far from perfect, and the Middle Eastern portion of it is less perfect
still. Turkey is already growing nervous at the advance of Kurdish forces toward and into those two
cities, which the Kurds consider historically theirs. If the Kurds start to consider that territory
presently theirs, open warfare is almost certain to break out between them and the Turks.
Fighting most likely won't break out between those two parties as long as substantial American
forces remain in northern Iraq, but it's a big question of how long American forces will stay in
Iraq at all. It goes without saying that the Pentagon would like to remove most of its forces from
Iraq as soon as possible to avoid having them having be caught in the crossfire between the numerous factions in
and around Iraq that have the potential to turn on one another: the Kurds, the Turks, the Iraqi
Sunnis, the Iraqi Shi'ites, and the Iraqi Shi'ites' biggest supporters, the Iranians. As it has
done elsewhere almost as a matter of policy, the U.S. will most likely leave at least a small military
presence in the country it has just occupied, setting up bases in the north, south, and west of
Iraq that could facilitate future operations in the region.
Already it appears that those future operations are in the making. At least three more U.S.
Army divisions are on their way to the Gulf, along with the new 21,000-pound MOAB bombs. It might
be coincidence, or it might not be, that Secretary Rumsfeld has more than once accused Syria of
providing aid to Saddam's regime, and that an official from the State Department, on the other side
of the ideological rift which has developed within the administration, has warned Syria and Iran
(along with North Korea), not to continue their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. The "rolling
start" of the Second Gulf War could indeed become just that, with the Third, Fourth, First Armored,
and First Cavalry divisions rolling out of Iraq into either Syria or Iran, or both.
It's commendable that the senior leadership of the Coalition has avoided effusive rhetoric over
the recent successes, beyond the justifiable satisfaction with a job done well for the right
reasons. It could be entirely possible that the our leaders see better than anyone else what truly
lies ahead, see struggles, some of them bloody, to ensure that the world, and not just the citizens
of Iraq, can live in freedom from fear.
© 2003 W.R. Hammons
No material posted on this website may be reproduced without my express
written permission. If you would like to contact me, I can be reached at bill@wrhammons.com.
