April 24, 2003
Thirty-five days and counting. That's how long it's been since Coalition ground forces surged
across the Iraq-Kuwait border to change the regime of Iraq and rid that country of weapons of mass
destruction. And thirty-five days and counting is how long the search for Iraqi WMD has proved
fruitless.
If the search for Saddam Hussein's chemical and biological weapons continues without success (I
would venture to say that any evidence found at this late date would be instantly branded as
"planted", but any evidence is better than no evidence), the whole of Operation Iraqi Freedom could
prove fruitless. The United States is in great danger of losing a tremendous amount of credibility,
throughout the world and particularly in the Middle East. The anti-war slogan "No Blood For Oil"
reverberates louder than ever, now that the world only sees the flow of Iraqi blood replaced with
the flow of Iraqi oil.
The lack of WMD evidence to justify the American invasion is all the more unfortunate since the
secondary rationale, "Iraqi Freedom", could very well prove ephemeral. Already, the Shi'ites of
southern Iraq (with the encouragement of Iran) are demonstrating their potential power in their
pilgrimage to Karbala. The Iraqi Shi'ites are numerous, and they are religious.
And in the Middle East, numbers and religion can be a volatile mix. Sooner or later elections
will be held in Iraq, and the sixty percent of Iraqis who are Shi'ite are almost certain to dominate
any resulting government (their political influence would be compounded by a failure of the remaining
minorities to unite against them, which is altogether possible). It is merely a question of what
constitutional safeguards will be in place to protect the rights of the minority Sunnis and Kurds.
The answer to that question will most likely depend on the medium. On paper, the protection of
civil rights will be ensured. In reality, with the Shi'ites keeping one eye on the model of
theocratic Iran and the other eye on the horrific repression they suffered at the hands of the
Sunnis, the majority in Iraq (the Shi'ites) will most likely feel no qualms about setting up a
repressive theocracy.
And the establishment of a Shi'ite theocracy would start a domino effect that could tear Iraq asunder.
The Sunnis do not want to be part of a Shi'ite state, and would most likely secede. The Kurds, in
turn, would see their chance to renege on their commitment to remain part of Iraq if Iraq ceased to
exist. Of course, this would bring Turkey into the equation, but the Kurds might prefer the Turks
to the Shi'ites as adversaries, or even attempt to play the two other parties off one another. And
Syria could very well see an opportunity in all of this to "save" the Sunnis of central Iraq, as
well as the territory they inhabit.
All of this could happen. Or it might not. The Iranians, with a restive Kurdish population of
their own, could very well see their own self-interest in an Iraq that continues to include Kurds
and Sunnis as well as Shi'ites, and act to moderate the religious impulses of their Iraqi Shi'ite
brethren. Much also depends on the United States, but its options are limited. Those options
essentially boil down to when and how to leave the sand trap of Iraq. The United States could
leave immediately after elections are held, before the new Iraqi regime asks it to leave. It
could also wait until the new Iraqi regime demands that it leave, or it could institute a second round
of "regime change." That last option would only instigate a new round of fighting for Coalition
forces, this time not against people demoralized and repressed by a dictator, but against
religious zealots fighting for their freedom to repress others.
In the end, the sound and the fury of Operation Iraqi Freedom will not signify nothing; they will
signify something worse than nothing. The United States spent much goodwill on the Second Gulf War,
and will walk away with no WMD destroyed and only new enemies created. Justified or not, there will
be from this point forward a deep mistrust of American motives, even as the rest of the world cowers
in awe at America's ever-increasing military dominance. The ninety-five percent of the global
population that's not American could actively work in tandem to impede American interests, in ways
that no one can yet foresee. The removal of Saddam Hussein was a worthwhile gamble, and President
Bush should be commended for stepping forward to do what he thought should be done. Too bad the
gamble didn't pay off completely.
© 2003 W.R. Hammons
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written permission. If you would like to contact me, I can be reached at bill@wrhammons.com.
